Neighbourhood Intensification Research Bulletin

The estimates quantify how Expanding Housing Options in Neighbourhoods initiatives can contribute to Toronto's housing goals, including the Housing Action Plan and the Municipal Housing Target. Through spatial analysis and the creation of a Neighbourhood Typology model, the research includes detailed analysis of Building Permits and the Development Pipeline to understand where new housing is being added in Neighbourhoods and where housing is likely to increase. These estimates represent an assessment of the first phase of Expanding Housing Options in Neighbourhoods initiatives up to the end of 2024. The modelling and analyses included in the Bulletin were conducted using data available up to this time. It is important to note that the Bulletin represents a theoretical uptake of housing units resulting from the Expanding Housing Options in Neighbourhoods initiative. A multitude of factors can influence actual uptake, which will be reported on through City Planning's regular Development Pipeline and Expanding Housing Options in Neighbourhoods monitoring reports, including Multiplexes and Garden Suites. The Bulletin estimates the uptake of citywide residential units resulting from the Expanding Housing Options in Neighbourhoods initiatives by 2051 at 163,785 units. The estimated uptake is 9,180 Laneway Suite units, 26,388 Garden Suite units, 87,134 Multiplex units and 41,083 units in Major Streets projects. If realized, this would represent an average of 1.37% of Neighbourhood parcels experiencing intensification annually and an overall 13% increase in total dwelling units from the 1.25 million dwelling units in Toronto reported in the 2021 Census to just over 1.4 million units by 2051. The Bulletin's findings highlight that as a component of Toronto's Housing Action Plan and Housing Accelerator Fund commitments, Expanding Housing Options in Neighbourhoods initiatives could contribute approximately 54,600 units or almost one-fifth (19%) of the new housing required to achieve the Building Faster Fund and Municipal Housing Target of 285,000 units by 2031.